Senate race in Texas, mean-spirited and expensive, is a test of Trump’s MAGA base
U.S. Sen. John Cornyn is seeking a fifth term.
By Tony Pederson
The Senate race in Texas is ugly and divisive, closely watched nationally, and may well be an early indicator of MAGA strength cultivated by President Donald Trump. And, in keeping with Texas standards, the race is and will become even more expensive.
The main event for now involves Republican Sen. John Cornyn, first elected to the Senate in 2002 and running for a fifth term and who is in a heated runoff with Attorney General Ken Paxton. In the March primary, Cornyn got 41.9% of the vote and Paxton 40.9%. The runoff is scheduled for May 26. Both Cornyn and Paxton have attempted to align themselves with Trump although the president made no endorsement in the primary.
Trump said after the runoff was set that he will endorse either Cornyn or Paxton and ask the other to drop out of the race. An endorsement for either will prove to be controversial, and in the days since Trump’s announcement, both Cornyn and Paxton have said they intend to remain in the race. To date, Trump has made no endorsement.
Democrats see an opportunity to flip the seat, but that opportunity has been seen several times in the past without happening. A Democrat has not won statewide office in Texas in more than 30 years.
James Talarico, a Christian, Bible-quoting liberal first elected to the Texas House of Representatives in 2018, won the Democratic primary and will run against either Cornyn or Paxton in the fall. Talarico defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, identified in a Wall Street Journal article as “a flame-throwing first-term congresswoman.” She had referred to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott as “governor hot wheels.” Abbott has been in a wheelchair for decades after an accident.
Cornyn has been a dependable Republican and conservative although not necessarily identified with the MAGA ideology. Cornyn began his political career as a state district judge, was elected as a Republican to the state Supreme Court and later elected Texas attorney general, serving from 1999-2002. In contrast with Paxton, controversy and scandal haven’t been associated with Cornyn.
Paxton served in the Texas House and Senate before being elected state attorney general in 2015. In 2023, the Texas House voted overwhelmingly to bring articles of impeachment against Paxton. The charges involved abuse of power, making false statements, obstruction of justice, not fully disclosing financial interests, accepting bribes, and conducting a “sham investigation” against whistleblowers in his office who made various accusations against him that became the basis for a number of the impeachment accusations. The Texas Senate voted to acquit Paxton on all charges of impeachment.
The whistleblowers filed a lawsuit in 2020 against Paxton claiming unlawful termination and retaliation in violation of the Texas Whistleblower Act. They won the lawsuit in 2025, and in short order Paxton dropped his appeal of the $6.6 million verdict. Paxton earlier had agreed to pay $300,000 in restitution in a deal to end a securities investigation involving a tech startup. And in the spring of 2025, the Texas Tribune reported that, in the final weeks of President Joe Biden ‘s administration, the Department of Justice made the decision not to pursue an indictment after a years-long investigation involving allegations that he abused his office to help a political donor. If all this isn’t exciting enough, Paxton’s wife, Angela, a member of the Texas Senate, filed for divorce last year “on biblical grounds” claiming adultery.
Yet, Paxton has been a favorite of the MAGA group. He filed multiple lawsuits against the administration of former President Joe Biden, and he has continued to file numerous (and what many consider frivolous) lawsuits against Texas entities. Paxton was also among the state attorneys general who challenged the 2020 election won by Biden. How Paxton became and remains a darling of MAGA was explained well in a Politico article published in March.
In the CPAC (Conservative Political Action Committee) meeting just concluded in Grapevine, a suburb of Dallas, the MAGA faithful were in full force. Cornyn declined to appear and was routinely booed by those in attendance. Paxton relished the opportunity to deliver the keynote address at the Ronald Reagan Dinner and enjoy the limelight of the party’s right wing.
National and state news media have speculated that Paxton emerging as the GOP candidate would be the nightmare scenario for the national party. That’s true now that Talarico will be the Democratic nominee. Texans love a Bible-quoting politician who is sincere about it and who understands the biblical context for the quotes. Talarico checks all the boxes. He’s a Presbyterian seminary graduate who is a UT-Austin grad who also earned a master’s degree in education policy from Harvard. He’s a former schoolteacher.
As New York Times columnist David French put it: “Talarico is one of the few openly Christian politicians in the United States who acts like a Christian, and by acting like a Christian he reveals a profound contrast with so many members of the MAGA Christian movement that’s dominated American political life for 10 years.”
Talarico had other help in the national media after an interview on “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” was pulled from the air after CBS lawyers apparently advised the show’s producers that the interview could trigger the FCC’s equal-time regulation. The interview was put on The Late Show YouTube channel and immediately had several million viewers. Talarico also was the subject of a favorable profile in The New Yorker with the headline, “James Talarico puts his faith in Texas voters.”
The deadline for removal of a name from the runoff ballot has passed in Texas, and both Paxton and Cornyn will be on the ballot even if Trump endorses. And endorsing will involve risks. If he endorses Cornyn, the MAGA crowd will no doubt be infuriated, and showing up at the polls in November might be put at risk. If he endorses Paxton, mainstream Republicans who have been the heart of making Texas a solid red state will no doubt take offense, also with the possible effect of not showing up in November.
And the GOP will need voters to show up in November. Trump’s approval ratings continue at historic lows. The war in Iran is not popular. And in a state where almost 40% of the population is Hispanic, Trump’s programs to deport those here illegally have sparked resentment and likely changes in Hispanic voting patterns as indicated by recent polling.
A number of conservative podcasters have been critical of Trump, claiming that his campaign not to start new wars has now left Americans feeling betrayed. Joe Rogan, whose podcast “The Joe Rogan Experience” is the most popular podcast on Spotify, called the war in Iran “crazy.”
Attorney General Ken Paxton is the clear MAGA favorite.
In the campaign for the runoff, Cornyn’s ads have referenced the Ten Commandments and the allegations of infidelity against Paxton. Paxton’s ads have accused Cornyn of the classic “flip-flop” as he now endorses removing the Senate filibuster rule in order to pass the SAVE America Act that mandates voter ID and proof of citizenship in order to register to vote. Trump has said the SAVE America Act must be approved to guarantee fair elections in the
Even before the March vote, reports indicated that $125 million was spent on advertising in the Senate race in Texas, making it the most expensive in history. Texas is a state where expensive and mean-spirited campaigns are the norm. Expect more money and more mean spirits to flow freely for the runoff and for the fall election.
Donald Trump won two presidential elections by tapping into a level of voter alienation where many, especially in the working class, felt left out of the political process. That MAGA base will be tested in the November midterms. But look to the Texas Senate race for an early indication of whether there are cracks in that base.
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Tony Pederson is managing fellow of the Overby Center for Southern Journalism and Politics and professor emeritus in journalism at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.
